As we near the end of April, it's almost that time that the fantasy baseball community begins taking players' numbers seriously and identifying whether trends are real or not. A number of players are littering the top of leaderboards that were expected e.g. Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, etc.
Then there are some not-so-familiar faces. Today, we'll get into those a little bit and recommend you either sell them high, or ride them to your fantasy title.
Charlie Blackmon, OF, Colorado Rockies
This guy. On a team with two of MLB's premier stars (Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez) and the 2013 NL batting champion (Michael Cuddyer), Blackmon has managed to stand out. He's batting .411 with four homers, five steals and 49 total bases. He was moderately successful last season in 258 plate appearances, hitting .309 with six home runs and seven swipes, so this isn't a complete shock.
His minor league numbers fluctuated, but as he gained experience his numbers leveled out. In addition, he also had a 30-steal season in High-A ball.
Verdict: Ride him out. Obviously he won't bat .411, but he's a good power/speed combo in a great hitter's park. Plus CarGo's injury history favors his playing time.
Alexei Ramirez, SS, Chicago White Sox
Ramirez is a guy who has been given chance after chance by fantasy owners because of his staggering talent, only to be let down time after time. This year, however, is proving tough to look away from. He's batting .357 with four home runs and four steals. His slugging percentage is at .560, blowing away anything he's ever done previously. Was his .284, 30-stolen base 2013 a harbinger of things to come?
Verdict: Sell high. Don't get too excited. A deeper look shows a rising ground ball percentage, a dipping line drive rate, and a similar fly ball rate to last season. His home run to fly ball ratio has spiked, and will come down. Get what you can now, but don't sell too low-he's still valuable for steals.
Brian Dozier, 2B, Minnesota Twins
Dozier's batting average (.221) might make you sick, but he's been very valuable thus far as a source of power from a position where it has been scarce. Dozier was one of those names in the preseason widely available in the final five rounds or so of drafts, when everyone who missed out on the Robinson Cano-types filled in their roster.
Dozier showed good pop a season ago, homering 18 times, but this year he's showing even more power. Can it last? I'm skeptical. Dozier never showed big power at the minor league level, and his approach at the plate is somewhat troublesome. He only swings at 30 percent of pitches sent his way, and his contact rates are dropping from 2013. His fly ball rate is up, but he plays in a very big park-I see a drought coming that will leave his name littering waiver wires.
Verdict: Sell high. He's a useful player, but counting on him as a starter will have some frustrating periods. Better off packaging him with another piece and upgrading altogether, or filling a need by dealing him to someone power-needy.
Mark Buehrle, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Well, well, well if this isn't a blast from the past. The crafty lefty has a 4-0 record, microscopic 0.64 ERA, and a strikeout-per-nine rate that's nearing his career-high. Very little has changed in Buehrle's velocity, and his FIP indicates that the hot start isn't overly fluky. This is a guy who has a perfect game AND a no-hitter to his credit, so this is a tough case.
Verdict: Sell high. What gives me pause here is his 92.3 percent strand rate. That's completely unsustainable and he hasn't even given up a home run yet. I think he can be a serviceable pitcher for 2014, and I don't see him getting dropped, but if you can fetch a nice hitter or a solid closer for him by all means go for it.
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