Before the year started, I gave you some of the top outfield sleepers getting drafted outside the Top 200. Now, we're a month in and it's time to see how my boys have fared.
*All ADPs taken from FantasyPros.com
Nick Swisher (ADP-204), Cleveland Indians (Other Positions: 1B)
Swisher has been the type of steady mainstay that goes in the middle rounds of drafts as a second or third outfielder for several years now. Last season though, his batting average dipped below .250 for the first time since 2010, and his RBI numbers fell because he wasn't in the Yankees' loaded batting order anymore.
Is that enough to drop him out of the Top 200 though? His plate patience showed zero signs of decline, he still belted 22 home runs, and saw a drop in his ISO rating thanks to less doubles, not dingers. The real killer last year was his average-even though he's never been known as a .300 hitter he had been hitting in the .270s for most of his Yankee run.
Blame it on the BABIP though! If that normalizes this year, he'll be the same old Swish and he will be an early pickup once the injury bug starts biting. Save yourself the trouble and take a late-round flier on him-he could be a great trade sweetener, and he backs up two positions.
After one month: Swisher hasn't made me look too good. His average dip looks like it might've been for real, his OBP is cratering (.287) and most alarming is that he's walking less. It may be time to cut bait.
Marlon Byrd (ADP-241.6), Philadelphia Phillies (Other Positions: None)
Byrd exploded back onto the scene last year with a .291, 24 HR, 78 RBI season for the Mets and Pirates, and yet is going largely undrafted. Sure it's not sexy to pick a 36-year-old outfielder who last posted numbers like that in 2009, but he's the No. 5 hitter in a power-friendly park.
There's no reason that someone who has done that in the past, did it last year, and has guaranteed at-bats coming his way shouldn't be given an opportunity by an owner in the final round of his/her draft. The wise people who do may find themselves in possession of a nice source of reserve power if one of the many injury-prone outfielders goes down this year.
After one month: Outfielders have gotten hurt, namely Bryce Harper, and Byrd is still not a terrible fill in. He's hitting a helpful .277 and slugging .467, with three home runs and 17 RBIs. With 106 plate appearances he is going to keep getting opportunities. Snap him up if you have a prime hitter on that DL.
Dexter Fowler (ADO-242.6), Houston Astros (Other positions: None)
I know...Houston Astros right? Believe it or not, if anyone on this list can become a big pick next year (Top 5 rounds) it's Fowler. He possesses a nice combination of power and speed and is in the middle of his physical prime.
Fowler's already proven 30-stolen base upside (27 SB in 2009), and has approached 15 home runs in both 2012 and 2013 while missing time in both seasons. Unlike many steal-first guys in fantasy baseball, Fowler has real bat skills too-he batted .300 in 2012, hit well over .300 twice in the minors, and remains in a good hitter's park even if he has to leave Coors Field.
After one month: Mixed results. He started off real hot, came down with some kind of stomach bug, and hasn't been the same since. He has two home runs and three stolen bases, nothing spectacular, and I'm a big worried about his spiking ground ball rate. At-bats will be there for him, but he's disappointed me.
Colby Rasmus (ADP-271.2), Toronto Blue Jays (Other positions: None)
Rasmus has real power. He has belted 20+ in each of the past two seasons, and had a 29-homer campaign in Double A in the Cardinals' system. He also is a quality defender in the realm of reality; this means nothing in terms of fantasy, except that he will continue to play and get opportunities even if he slumps because he offers extra value to the Blue Jays.
Rasmus' issue at the MLB level is the potential for putrid batting averages-twice in his MLB career he has hit under .226 in 500-plus at-bats. If he does that, then he isn't sustainable as a starter. However, if he can hover between .250 and .270, he could potentially smack 25-plus home runs as a final-round draft pick. There's too much reward to not take a minimal risk.
After one month: Rasmus has disappointed in every way imaginable. His home runs are just okay, his line drives are disappearing and his ground balls are up. He's posted a brutal .630 OPS and is pretty much droppable. This has surprised me.
Eric Young Jr., (ADP-285.3), New York Mets (Other positions: None)
Did you miss out on Jacoby Ellsbury? Don't feel like spending a relatively high pick on Elvis Andrus or Jean Segura at shortstop? Fear not, there's a source of steals that it seems nobody wants.
The speedster I'm talking about is Eric Young, the leadoff hitter for the New York Mets. He's a batting average risk for sure.-he only hit .249 last year and failed to break .300 in the minors until 2011, but his speed and base-stealing ability is above questioning.
Last year he nabbed 46 bases and was caught 11 times. In his first two minor league campaigns, he swiped 87 and 73 bags and topped 50 steals three times. He's an absolute monster on the bases, and his ADP allows you to draft high-upside players for the whole draft while waiting until the very end for steals.
After one month: You wanted steals, and Eric Young has delivered. The Mets' leadoff hitter is hitting a nauseating .215, but has reached base at an above-.300 clip and currently ranks second in MLB in stolen bases (12), one behind Dee Gordon of the Dodgers. I warned you this is a specialist, and so far if that's how you drafted him you're happy.
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