Since his rookie season nobody in baseball has doubted the potential and talent of Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. He's long been the No. 1 pick at the position in fantasy baseball as well, until this year where Hanley Ramirez passed him by in most drafts.
Those who stuck with Tulo as their top shortstop have been rewarded with a campaign that is bordering on historic if it continues at this pace. Tulowitzki is hitting .414 with nine home runs, 31 RBIs and 34 runs scored. He's reaching base at an over .500 clip and is slugging a ridiculous .775.
Before you go and scoff at the big numbers, and credit Coors Field for his success, allow me to acknowledge that Coors is a big part of this. His numbers undeniably jump when he plays at home, but he's still put up a .365 on-base percentage and .500 slugging on the road.
Fantasy baseball breakouts: Sell high advice
There are a few red flags--his BABIP is very high which suggests a comeback down to Earth is in the offing, and his 28.1 percent HR/FB ratio is through the roof and also unsustainable. There's also the elephant in the room that I've ignored until now-his health. Tulowitzki hasn't played in 150 games since 2010.
That said, he typically performs as a Top 5 shortstop even in the limited action, so those playing in Rotisserie leagues shouldn't concern themselves there. As for points leaguers, there's more for you to fret about. However, even the most injury-prone players have flukes of health.
Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria had a health-risk tag as well for quite some time; then 2013 came, he played in 160 games and belted 32 home runs. Take the chance, because the upside in Tulowitzki's case is No. 1 fantasy player.
Need more? His line drive percentage has shot up to 27 percent, up from 20.8 percent last year. He's expanding his strike zone lately, which generally is bad, but Pitch F/X data shows he's also making more contact on those swings. He's also crushing fastballs at an absurdly high rate, which might be a product of a minor swing change.
So if you want to trade Tulo, it's likely because you fear he'll get hurt. Fair...but what return can you get that will please you? Right now you'd be losing the trade if you dealt him straight up for Mike Trout! Unless you receive Trout or Miguel Cabrera, there's simply no way you should be dealing a player this hot in that ballpark at a position as scarce currently as shortstop.
Verdict: Don't Sell!
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