As the NFL season enters Week 4, fantasy owners need to start making tough decisions with bye weeks becoming a big factor. This week, six teams are on bye, making for slim pickings on the waiver wire. It also means that good players may need to be let go to fill up roster spots in certain weeks. Today, we will look at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back committee.
Entering the season Doug Martin was a borderline first-round pick. More often he was taken in Round 2, but he was seen as the unquestioned starter. Then the games started. Bobby Rainey has emerged as a quality player, but when it comes down to it, is he someone owners can feel okay about cutting if they need to make a pickup?
Doug Martin
Martin got only nine carries in Week 1, and totaled nine yards. That is very bad. While Martin's backers will be quick to point out that those poor numbers came against a difficult Carolina defense, his detractors could counter that the Panthers D is ranked 29th against the rush per FootballOutsiders.com.
Martin was limited to just six games last season, but while he was on the field he did little to justify the lofty rank he enjoyed this preseason. He received 21 carries per game in those six weeks, which is a healthy workload, but only managed a single touchdown. He lacked burst, and averaged 3.6 yards per rush. His offensive line was banged up, but that hasn't changed much in 2014.
It's been hard to reconcile last season's letdown, and the one bad performance in 2014, with the wild success he had in his rookie year. Martin was chewing up 4.6 yards a carry in 2012, and he notched 11 touchdowns. What's happened?
Well, a huge chunk of that success came during a Week 8 pillaging of Oakland in which he piled up 251 yards and scored four touchdowns.
In the seven games prior to that performance Martin averaged 4.2 yards per carry, run for 543 yards and scored three touchdowns. After that matchup, Martin ran for 660 yards and four touchdowns in eight games.
Simply put-he was an excellent fantasy running back in his rookie year, and since then he's tailed off. That early success though may be enough for him to resume his workhorse load once fully healthy.
Bobby Rainey
While Tampa Bay's been bad on all fronts this season, the offense has looked more explosive with Rainey on the field. There was speculation that while Martin did indeed get hurt in Week 1, he could've played through it and head coach Lovie Smith simply preferred Rainey in the game. Martin's missed two games since, though, so the injury was definitely legitimate.
That doesn't mean Rainey's not the better option though. He had a huge performance in Week 2 vs. the St. Louis Rams' fearsome front, gaining 144 yards and scoring a touchdown. After that performance, Rainey-mania was at an all-time high.
Then Thursday Night Football happened.
Rainey rushed 11 times for just 41 yards and fumbled twice. Game over right? Time for Martin to come back in and re-claim his spot?
Not so fast.
Rainey caught eight passes for 64 yards against the Falcons and salvaged the outing for those expecting Tampa Bay's running game to get right vs. a porous Atlanta defensive line. The deficit made it tough for the Bucs to commit to the run, but Rainey's got 12 catches for 102 yards and a score through three weeks. Martin is set to return for Week 4 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that hasn't been stout vs. the run and is missing key pieces of the defense.
What to do?
Martin owners probably rushed to pick up Rainey after his Week 1 dud, so if you are one of those owners it's not a bad idea to start both.
Rainey is not someone owners should consider cutting. His contributions in the passing game will likely mean he's in on almost all third-down passing situations; also, Tampa Bay's shaky line will lead to tons of checkdowns to the running back.
However, Martin is still the lead back. He will probably continue to get 20 carries a game as long as the Buccaneers aren't being blown out in the opening minutes, and a defense that looks shaky would be helped if the offense can control time of possession.
Start both this week and see what happens. Martin remains the primary option, but Rainey is on his heels. If Martin lets them down for another week or two, I predict a change will be made.
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