Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy 2015: Jurickson Profar A Sleeper Or Non-Factor?

On Wednesday Texas Rangers shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar, one of the most-hyped prospects in all of baseball, will throw a baseball for the first time since having a setback with his injured shoulder in November. Profar missed all of 2014 with a torn teres major muscle in his shoulder, a precursor to Texas' injury-riddled last-place campaign.

The news is major for the Texas Rangers in terms of their organization, but is this report a big deal for fantasy baseball players?

Profar's major league action consists of 85 games in which he slashed .234/.308/.336 with six home runs and two stolen bases. He had a cup of coffee with the big club in 2012, but his struggles in 17 games don't shed much light on him as a player.

Profar's minor league profile doesn't suggest a .300 hitter; instead, Profar is expected to bring power and speed to the table while hitting somewhere in the .280 range.

One alarming aspect of Profar's MLB profile is the leap in strikeout percentage that is coupled with a decrease in walk percentage. There is plenty of time for Profar to correct the issue, but that indicates he is struggling with MLB pitching. He also posted a 35.1 percent fly ball rate in 2013-not great for a player expected to show 20-home run pop.

A bigger problem for Profar may simply be opportunity. In his absence Rougned Odor filled in capably, hitting .259 with nine home runs. Odor posted a weak .297 on-base percentage, and if Profar tears up Triple-A when the season starts it's hard to see Odor standing in his way. However, if Odor is fine and Profar doesn't hit the ground running, it's easy to envision the Rangers letting Profar find himself in the minors.

Verdict: Profar is safe to ignore in 10-team redraft leagues. Keep him on your flagged list, and monitor his progress. In deeper redraft leagues, or any scenario with keepers, Profar is worth a very late flier. The upside is there, and he is 2B and SS eligible, which aren't deep positions.

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