James Shields has had real problems finding a new team to play for this offseason, and history says that teams have been right to be cautious about signing the ace. Shields was considered to be one of the premier starting free agent pitchers available in free agency, and several teams are reportedly interested, but they have been reluctant to pull the trigger on a deal.
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Shields entered the offseason hoping to receive a deal in the five year, $100 million range. Now, it appears that Shields will not only fail to receive a five-year deal as he originally wanted, but he will also probably not receive the $20 million per year salary that he wanted.
The primary concerns surrounding Shields are centered on his age. He is already 33 years old, and he has a lot of innings under his belt. He does have a long history of being durable and effective as a starter, but he is also likely to decline in the coming seasons, making a long-term deal a risky proposition.
New Commish Wants To Change Baseball's Image
According to Fox Sports, the track record for teams that have given expensive, long-term deals to pitchers that were 33 or older is less than stellar. Kevin Brown, Pedro Martinez, and A.J. Burnett all signed expensive deals for four or more years as they were entering their mid-thirties, and all three were alternately ineffective or injured for large portions of their contracts.
Even Cliff Lee, who signed an expensive deal more recently, succumbed to the injury bug. He was an outlier in terms of performance, pitching well for the first three years of his deal. However, he still missed the majority of the 2014 season, and there are major questions about his health heading into 2015.
Executives around the league remember these deals, and they have apparently learned from the mistakes of former execs. Teams are also about Shields' checkered postseason track record and the fact that his strikeout rate has declined in recent seasons.
Shields will undoubtedly find a team, but any team that signs him will surely be aware of the risk they are taking.
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