There were several big-name starting pitchers available in free agency this offseason, and most of them have signed by now (sorry, James Shields). Jon Lester signed a big deal with the Chicago Cubs during the winter meetings, and Max Scherzer recently signed a megadeal with the Washington Nationals. Of the two, which was the better bargain?
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While both contracts were massive, they were hardly equal. Lester's deal in Chicago was for six years and $155 million. Scherzer's deal with Washington is a seven-year deal worth $210 million (Washington will actually be paying him the money over a 14-year period, however).
Lester is 31 years old, and Scherzer is 30, so both players' contracts will carry them through their age-37 season. Scherzer was considered the best free agent available, although everyone agrees that Lester is also an ace.
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So which was the better buy?
It may turn out that neither pitcher lives up to their contract, as history is littered with big free agent deals for guys in their thirties that did not work out well, and that is especially true for pitchers. Still, by looking at the two players' recent performance, we can make a reasonable guess about which will work out better.
According to Fox Sports, since 2012, Scherzer trails only Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), whereas Lester ranks just 32nd in that category. Scherzer also strikes out 2.6 batters per nine innings more than Lester, meaning he is more effective at producing swinging strikes (and obviously teams cannot score runs without putting the ball in play).
Lester has also endured a heavier workload to this point, having thrown over 5,000 pitches more than Scherzer, and putting much more mileage on his arm.
Finally, if we compare other pitchers with similar profiles to Lester and Scherzer, it turns out that guys that compare to Scherzer averaged more WAR per season than guys like Lester did.
None of this guarantees that Scherzer will be better for the next several seasons than Lester, but based on their personal histories and the success of other pitchers like them, it appears that Scherzer has the best chance to be worth the money.
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