Each year there are sleepers who are picked in the mid-to-late rounds that win leagues for their owners. On the flip side, there are big-ticket players that get taken too early and sink those owners' chances. Each year it's super fun to identify the sleepers, but it might be more important to recognize the busts.
Here are the top 5 likeliest busts at shortstop. These busts are always relative to draft position.
Jose Reyes, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP-41, Other positions: none)
Reyes' reputation as a "steals" guy is unfair, because for many years he's been doing much more than that. He still figures to be more than a steals guy, but as he enters his age-31 season, there are little signs of decline that make it much riskier to spend pick No. 41 on him.
He stole 30 bases last season, a fine total, but one that may be his ceiling these days. He's walking less, and he's experienced a bit of an uptick in strikeouts that's been consistent for two seasons. His OBP and slugging were lower than they have been in a long time, and the tiny signs are there of an impending collapse in value.
Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox (ADP-102, Other positions: none)
Ramirez is a pretty good bet for 20-plus stolen bases, but for the No. 5 guy at the position he has awfully regular batting averages for the past two seasons, unexceptional power, and a terrible walk rate throughout his career. Ramirez is not bad at reaching base, but his OBP rarely impresses because he just doesn't take pitches.
If he went later than just outside the Top 100 he might be a high-upside steal, but as is owners will be hoping for an uptick in BABIP to boost his value.
Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers (ADP-123, Other positions: none)
Andrus is safe this season since prospect Jurickson Profar's season is already over once again, but his production is dropping, and his current ADP is a product of his name. Despite solid BABIP, he regularly hits .270 or worse. He's never topped six home runs, and last year he stole 27 bases, but was caught 15 times.
He's less efficient on the base paths, could see his at-bats fall if Leonys Martin replaces him near the top of the batting order, and has no power to speak of whatsoever. With steals no longer coming in at an elite level, there's no reason to invest heavily in him.
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