Several teams this season have been rumored to be tanking for the first overall pick so they can grab Duke center Jahlil Okafor. The freshman Blue Devil hasn't disappointed at all this year; his team is in the Final Four, and he averaged 17.5 points and 8.5 rebounds in one of the toughest conferences in the nation.
So why is he less of a lock now to go first overall?
That would be the emergence of Kentucky freshman Karl-Anthony Towns. He hasn't been a secret this year as the anchor of an undefeated squad that's been No. 1 in the country since Day 1, but Towns' monster performance vs. Notre Dame in the Elite 8-25 points on 10-of-13 shooting-may have provided the necessary boost.
These two may get the chance to face off in the National Championship, but in case they don't, here's a head-to-head breakdown now.
The Case For Okafor
Okafor is the most polished offensive big man in the nation (sorry Frank Kaminsky). At almost seven feet tall Okafor has an array of post moves that guys like Dwight Howard still haven't learned. He is ready right this second to be a focal point of an NBA offense.
It's not all roses for Okafor though. He is not a major deterrent at the rim on defense despite his immense size. Okafor only blocked 1.4 shots per game despite playing more than 30 minutes on average, and he sometimes can be beaten by other offensively skilled bigs in one-on-one situations.
Okafor has a ways to go as a passer, as he's averaged less than two assists per game despite a 27.4 percent usage rate. It's a lot to ask of a teenager to be a dominant passer and scorer so that part of his game will likely come. Right now though, he doesn't have it.
Finally, Okafor is hitting barely half of his free throws, and has proven to be a liability late at the charity stripe. Star big men in the past have been plagued by poor free throw shooting to become perennial All-Stars, but it gives opposing defenses an out when there's someone they can easily foul.
The Case For Towns
Towns does not have the polish of Okafor, and he's also 20 pounds lighter. This season Towns scored just 10.1 points per game, way below what Okafor has given the Blue Devils, and wasn't leaned on nearly as much to dominate. He also benefitted from the plethora of talent surrounding him in Kentucky. Okafor was also playing with skilled teammates, but Kentucky's team goes 10-deep, and focusing on a single player is not feasible from a defensive standpoint.
Towns has some advantages though. For one, he played 10 fewer minutes a night than Okafor did, and so he had less opportunity to put up huge numbers. Defensively, he's absolutely Okafor's superior. He blocked a shot more per game than Okafor in 10 fewer minutes, and posted a much better defensive rating per 100 possessions.
Okafor allowed 95.1 points per 100 possessions this year while Towns allowed just 77. Towns' box plus/minus checks in at 17 while Okafor's is 11. And Towns showed off his offensive chops when necessary in the Elite 8 against Notre Dame, absolutely housing tongue-wagging Zach Auguste, who was in the midst of the best game of his life.
Verdict: If the Knicks get the No. 1 pick, which is no guarantee, they should resist the urge to grab Okafor for his polish and take Towns. Both players are so young that they'll develop the parts of their respective games that are lacking. Towns will gain more polish on offense, but his defense, which is more natural and instinctual, is already there. Rim protection has become just as important as scoring, and low-post scoring isn't quite as in demand as it once was. Towns can already do both and is still getting better.
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