Running back is one of the most important positions in fantasy football, but can also be the most maddening and inconsistent. Injuries, fumbles, and fickle coaches all play a major role in determining how your best-laid draft plans pan out.
One way to shift the odds in your favor is to identify which running backs are at the most risk of losing their job for any number of reasons. Here are five running backs with starting jobs right now that might find themselves in a committee or worse as the season goes on.
C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos (ADP:12)
Anderson is going at the end of Round 1 in 12-team drafts, and his statistics don’t disagree. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry, showed he can catch the rock, and scored eight touchdowns. And he’s still the RB1 in a Peyton Manning offense.
He’s also got real competition behind him. Montee Ball was in this position last year, and ineffectiveness and injury derailed it. Ball is healthy again though, and has more pedigree than Anderson. Ronnie Hillman is in camp, and may be more versatile than Anderson. Finally, Juwan Thompson is in the mix as well and could show up in camp and earn the job.
Anderson will probably be the leader coming out of camp but he has never taken a full season’s pounding.
Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals (ADP:20)
Hill was a revelation in 2014, blending power and speed to own the Bengals’ timeshare he was previously splitting with Giovani Bernard. Hill is still in that platoon, he’s just the A-side of it. At five yards per carry that’s no surprise, but Bernard isn’t going to just quietly slink into obscurity.
He remains the better pass-catcher of this duo, and he is capable of handling early-down duties as well. If, for some reason, Hill struggles in the early goings there could be a quick trigger to move back to Bernard.
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints (ADP:33)
Ingram was a strong value last season, but he only started nine games and that represented his most starts in any season of his career. Ingram has only appeared in 16 games once, so injuries are not only a possibility—they’re a likelihood. He now has C.J. Spiller behind him too, who is pretty much a lock to handle almost all third-down situations.
If something happens to Ingram, Spiller is capable of stepping in and taking over the job full-time. As it currently stands Spiller will steal touches and possibly touchdowns from Ingram. The talent is there, but there are landmines to Ingram’s path to becoming an elite fantasy RB.
Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (ADP:39)
Miller is a very talented runner, but for some reason the Dolphins never just turn the job over to him completely. He’s shared time with Daniel Thomas for what seems like forever despite outplaying him at every turn, and now that Thomas is gone, the Dolphins drafted Boise State rookie Jay Ajayi to compete with him.
He got 216 carries in 2014 and rushed for 1,099 yards with eight touchdowns so maybe the Dolphins finally got the message. But I wouldn’t trust it and not draft Ajayi along with him.
Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders (ADP: 43)
Murray has obvious physical talent, but zero track record as a No. 1 back. He’s going to enter camp as the obvious leader of the pack, but he must beware of Roy Helu and Trent Richardson behind him.
Helu has always been second fiddle to Alfred Morris with the Redskins, but he’s never had a chance to be a lead dog. Helu averaged 5.4 yards per carry last season with the ‘Skins, and is a known commodity as a receiver out of the backfield.
Richardson has become a bit of a joke for fantasy owners, but he’s the only back of this bunch with experience as a workhorse, and he’s bound to be desperate to keep his NFL career alive.
Murray would be wise to work his a** off in training camp to stave off these hungry challengers for his job.
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