The NFL preseason is in full swing, so gamblers will be putting in their bets for the upcoming season. This is the first of eight NFL divisional previews that will guide you toward the right over/under bets to make for the 2015 season. Today’s preview will be the AFC East.
New England Patriots, O/U 10.5
The Patriots’ over/under was discussed at length here, but as a refresher chew on this. The Patriots are expected to win 11 games, even though right now four of them are slated to be played without future Hall of Famer Tom Brady running the show.
We do not know much about second-year quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, but we do know he isn’t Tom Brady. The Patriots’ offense is typically among the NFL’s best, but that’s largely because of Brady’s greatness. Aside from tight end Rob Gronkowski, there aren’t any weapons in New England’s war chest that are scary. These are mostly solid players who are elevated by the scheme and the QB.
New England’s first four games are home for Pittsburgh, at Buffalo, home for Jacksonville, and then at Dallas in Week 5 after a bye. Winning more than two of those games without Brady won’t be easy, especially the Week 2 date at Buffalo, which was a top-5 defense in 2014 and added Rex Ryan as the head coach.
The Pats also are going into this season with an overhauled secondary that got worse. Darrelle Revis is gone, re-uniting with the Jets. Brandon Browner is gone, too. New England should be the class of the AFC East, but 11 wins is going to be tough. UNDER.
Miami Dolphins, O/U 9
The Dolphins made perhaps the biggest splash of the offseason, splurging on DT Ndamukong Suh to provide a wall against the run, and a boost to the pass rush in one fell swoop.
They also made moves to increase the weaponry around blossoming QB Ryan Tannehill. They brought in WR Kenny Stills from New Orleans, WR Greg Jennings from Minnesota, TE Jordan Cameron from Cleveland, and spent their first round pick on WR DeVante Parker out of Louisville. Tannehill is flush with options in the passing game now, although none of these players scream superstar (Parker has the best shot). Don’t forget second-year receiver Jarvis Landry is still around.
Depth is a little bit of a problem though for Miami, and their secondary/linebacking corps leaves much to be desired. That happens when one player (Suh) is soaking up the salary cap. And yes, Suh’s cap hit this year is extremely manageable, but the future costs affect current team building. Nine wins seems about right, but since predicting a push is weak, I’ll say OVER.
Buffalo Bills, O/U 8.5
Defense is king in Buffalo once again, especially with Ryan running the show. The defensive line is a horror show for opponents, and the blitzes he loves to bring will make quarterbacks feel like they’re facing 15 men. The D isn’t without holes, however. The linebackers aren’t great, and the secondary has guys who can make plays, but aren’t always consistent.
Offensively, bringing in LeSean McCoy is a game-changer. He can make an offensive line look better than it is, and he’ll have to this year. TE Charles Clay was a solid add, even if he was expensive. The QB situation is an outright disaster though, and it’s going to limit this team’s ceiling. If Matt Cassel wins the job, you’re guaranteeing yourself a bottom 10 QB. If EJ Manuel wins it—well, at least there’s upside? And if Tyrod Taylor wins it, that’s just funny. Sorry Buffalo, but until there’s a real QB in town: UNDER.
New York Jets, O/U 7.5
The Jets are in a similar situation as the Bills, although their QB situation might actually be less dire. Ryan Fitzpatrick is no great shakes, but he’s gotten it done before (in Buffalo!), and he is probably an upgrade over Geno Smith. Where’s Smith you’re asking?
Oh yeah, he got decked in the face by former teammate IK Enemkpali and had to have surgery to fix his jaw. Guess where Enemkpali is playing now……..BUFFALO. You can’t make this stuff up.
The Jets have a better O-line than Buffalo, with capable runners in Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell to shoulder the load. Stevan Ridley and Zac Stacy are wildcards as well. Fitzpatrick has good players to throw to in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. If Fitzpatrick just doesn’t throw a bunch of interceptions, the Jets will have an average offense, at worst.
Defensively, their D-line looked like it would challenge to be the NFL’s best before Sheldon Richardson tried to commit every crime under the sun. He’s already suspended four weeks, and a recent run-in with police that involved resisting arrest, speeding, marijuana, AND a firearm likely means he’ll miss more time. Still, Muhammad Wilkerson is here and so is first-round pick Leonard Williams.
Revis, Antonio Cromartie, and Buster Skrine might be the best collection of CBs in the sport. I see a lot to like here, but the in-fighting in camp and immaturity off the field has a real chance to derail this whole thing. This is risky, but OVER.
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