The Royals have beaten the Mets in the World Series, and now, the focus for all 30 teams is on 2016. There are plenty of big ticket free agents on the market this offseason, and a number of them will sign huge contracts they do not outperform. Here are the five players most likely to be overpaid this winter.
5. Ben Zobrist, IF/OF, Royals
This might seem odd for someone who was just crucial to a World Series title, but teams sign players based on future performance, not past. Zobrist, 34, is getting long in the tooth, and he will command a hefty contract precisely because he was so good this October/Novbember..
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Zobrist slashed .303/.365/.515 during Kansas City’s run to the World Series, but overall Zobrist was a much less valuable player than he has been in the past. He was worth 2.1 WAR per Fangraphs in 2015, and was a negative defensively for the first time since 2008.
He split time this year between second base and the outfield, but was not good with the glove anywhere he played, and his range was what suffered the most. This is unsurprising for someone who is nearing his age 35 season. A long-term deal for Zobrist is ill-advised, no matter how well he hit in the postseason.
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4. Daniel Murphy, IF, Mets
Murphy would have topped this list if it was made before the World Series started. Prior to running into the Kansas City buzz saw, Murphy was putting together arguably the greatest postseason in history. He had homered six straight games, and took two (possibly three depending on if Jake Arrieta wins this year) Cy Young winners deep. He almost single-handedly carried the Mets to the World Series.
Then, he cooled off in the power department, and made horrific errors in Games 4 and 5 that helped the Mets blow both. The errors were a sobering reminder of what a maddening player he is, and likely shaved off a fair amount of the dollars he might’ve earned if the party ended after the NLCS. Still, Murphy is one of the best pure contact hitters in baseball, and that flash of power he showed this October in clutch situations will be worth a lot at the negotiating table.
3. Jeff Samardzija, SP, White Sox
The perception of Samardzija is that he’s a young, high-upside fireballer who has some inconsistency issues. The reality is that he’s 30, he’s definitely inconsistent, and he’s only been excellent in two of the last five seasons. In 2013 and 2015 his ERA was well over a 4.00, and he’s never won more than 11 games.
Samardizja has shown durability, which matters, but his K-rate had dipped two seasons in a row, his walks went up in 2015, and his ground ball rate has plummeted.
2. Johnny Cueto, SP, Royals
Cueto’s record (11-13) is deceiving because the Reds struggled to support him for most of the first half of the season. He pitched like an ace until he was dealt to the Royals, and it was essentially a season and a half of unadulterated baseball porn watching him pitch. He had ups-and-downs for KC after the deadline, and even in the postseason, but he also delivered two money-making games. The best of them was a two-hit, complete game throttling of the Mets in Game 2 of the World Series.
Cueto, who was vastly underpaid on his last contract (four years, $27 million), will command somewhere between $150-$200 million this offseason. He will turn 30 before next season starts, and he is not in incredible shape. The beginning of a long-term Cueto deal will probably be worth the money, but decline will set in around Year 3, and then it’s several seasons of CC Sabathia-esque pain.
1. Justin Upton, OF, Padres
Upton has been a consistent mid-to-high 20s home run hitter, which means he will get paid on the open market. Despite that power, however, Upton is a minus defensively even though he possesses supreme athleticism, he strikes out more than a quarter of his at-bats, and he hasn’t hit better than .270 since 2012.
Upton’s talent is tantalizing, but he will turn 29 during the 2016 season. He’s been a full-timer since 2008. We know who Upton is, and that’s an overpriced brand name.
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