Yoenis Cespedes is going to be the most highly sought outfielder in free agency this offseason after belting 35 home runs for the Tigers and Mets, and spearheading the Mets’ charge to the postseason. Cespedes is no one-trick pony either, adding great defensive value to the equation. Being the best outfielder on the market doesn’t mean he’s the best buy.
That honor belongs to Jason Heyward.
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The Cardinals have made a qualifying offer to Heyward, 26, but he’d be wise to decline. Heyward had the one of the best overall years of his career for St. Louis, who had the best record in baseball during the regular season. Heyward slashed .293/.359/.439 with 13 home runs, 60 RBI, and a career-high 23 stolen bases. Heyward contributed enormously with the leather as well, posting a 16.4 defensive rating on Fangraphs. He was also worth seven runs on the base paths, posting a 6.0 WAR. Heyward hasn’t been this good since he smacked 27 home runs in 2012, and that year he was only a half-win better.
Cespedes was worth 6.7 WAR, not even a full win, and yet he will cost tens of millions more to sign because of his 31 home runs. Those homers were absolutely crucial to the Mets’ stretch run, but many came during an absolute hot streak that, while impressive, will be hard for him to reproduce ever again.
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Another free agent outfielder, Justin Upton, figures to earn more than Heyward as well on the strength of a gaudy home run total (26), the third consecutive season in which he has hit more than 25. Upton is two years older than Heyward though, and he’s been a minus-defender for the last four seasons. Upton’s also known as one of baseball’s streakiest hitters, and was worth 3.6 WAR even though he hit double Heyward’s homers.
The Mets may not need to replace Cespedes if he leaves via free agency because young stud Michael Conforto seems ready to step in, but teams on the lookout for an impact outfielder can save some cash by eyeing Heyward rather than Cespedes or Upton, and likely reap a greater reward.
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