NCAA Tournament Picks and Predictions for Friday Sweet 16 Games

(Photo : (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)) INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - MARCH 24: Zach Edey #15 of the Purdue Boilermakers celebrates a basket from the bench against the Utah State Aggies during the second half in the second round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on March 24, 2024 in Indianapolis, Indiana.

The rounds of 64 and 32 have come and gone, and we are left with a Sweet 16 field in the men's NCAA Tournament that features just one double-digit seed and a whole lot of firepower in terms of current quality and historically elite programs.

Half of the tickets to the Elite 8 have been punched, with reigning champion UConn moving on to the Elite 8. Who will join them?

As we anxiously await these fantastic matchups, here are our official predictions for tonight's four Sweet 16 games.

(11) NC State vs. (2) Marquette

Time: 7:09 PM EST, Friday
Channel: CBS
How They Got Here: NC State defeated Texas Tech, Oakland. Marquette defeated Western Kentucky, Colorado.
Odds: Marquette -6.5

There is an interesting history wrinkle to this matchup. Before Marquette head coach Shaka Smart left VCU to take over Texas, he turned down the NC State job in 2011. When NC State won its first national championship in 1974, the team they beat in the title game was Marquette.

None of that will matter on Friday, though. This NC State team that was left for dead just two weeks ago has found new life and is playing at an extremely high level right now led by viral sensation D.J. Burns at center, a dangerous duo of guards in Michael O'Connell and D.J. Horne, and a strong cast of supporting characters all playing their roles perfectly at the right time.

It's hard to project exactly how the Wolfpack will continue to play at this level in the face of fatigue, but you have to assume it's staying around. Marquette will have its hands full on Friday.

Speaking of Marquette, the return of star guard Tyler Kolek from injury has given the Golden Eagles a huge lift on the offensive end, and they needed every bit of that lift to beat an upstart Colorado team. Marquette plays at a high level on both ends of the court, and they'll need to use the press to force NC State into turnovers to win this one. The Wolfpack rarely turn the ball over out of the half court, but they are more vulnerable against the sort of pressure that Smart has historically drawn up in his career.

Between Burns and Mo Diarra, NC State could have a very significant edge in the paint in this one, and the Wolfpack have the defenders in Casey Morsell and Jaden Taylor to potentially keep Kolek from winning the game himself.

The Pick: 78-72, NC State

(5) Gonzaga vs. (1) Purdue

Time: 7:39 PM EST, Friday
Channel: TBS
How They Got Here: Gonzaga defeated McNeese State, Kansas. Purdue defeated Grambling State, Utah State.
Odds: Purdue -5.5

Super star center Zach Edey delivered a masterclass in the first two rounds for Purdue, and the Boilermakers backcourt combination of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer has been at the top of its game.

If Purdue is going to continue this run, that will need to continue against a Gonzaga team that can run and score the ball at a very high level. The Bulldogs play fast and have four players averaging over 12.5 points per game, which includes distributor extraordinaire Ryan Nembhard, who averages 6.9 assists per game.

This has been billed as the weakest iteration of Gonzaga basketball in a while, but it certainly does not look like that right now. McNeese State was a very trendy upset pick, but the Zags made quick work of putting that notion to bed.

The two teams met in the regular season at the Maui Invitational with Purdue winning 73-63, and there are a few things we can glean from that game, long ago as it may have been.

Gonzaga actually was fully in control of that game into the second half, before the Boilermakers tightened up defensively and forced the Bulldogs into a few lengthy scoring droughts. Both teams shot the ball miserably from three-point range, so expect a higher-scoring game this time around.

Edey dominated the glass with 14 rebounds in that game, and while we think this one will be close, Zach Edey's ability to grab second-chance opportunities and spring his offense with defensive rebounds should prove to be the difference.

The Pick: 79-75, Purdue

(4) Duke vs. (1) Houston

Time: 9:39 PM EST, Friday
Channel: CBS
How They Got Here: Duke defeated Vermont, James Madison. Houston defeated Longwood, Texas A&M.
Odds: Houston -4.5

Despite nearly seeing their season end in stunning fashion on Sunday, the Houston Cougars are a team that has so much going for them right now. Their trademark defensive toughness under Kelvin Sampson is still there, and their guard duo of Jamal Shead and L.J. Cryer make them very difficult to slow down on the opposite end.

Duke comes in playing as well as it has all year, as their first half romp of James Madison is very arguably the best half of basketball the Blue Devils have played all season. Duke gets its regular contributions from veteran guard Jeremy Roach and sophomore big Kyle Filipowski, but the sharpshooting of Jared McCain is a huge X-factor for this team right now, as he got hot in a hurry on Sunday to put the Dukes away quickly.

Texas A&M and Houston played an uncharacteristically fast-paced game on Sunday, so I would look for the Cougars to try to get back to their slower ways on Friday. Duke will likely be fine with that, as the Blue Devils have been a fairly deliberate team under Jon Scheyer.

Both teams feature dynamic scoring guards, but Duke may find somewhat of an advantage down low, where Filipowski and Mark Mitchell look poised to give Houston fits in the rebounding department. Despite that, Houston has found ways to overcome its rebounding shortcomings all season long, including in that last game against the Aggies.

The Pick: 68-64, Houston

(3) Creighton vs. (2) Tennessee

Time: 10:09 PM EST, Friday
Channel: TBS
How They Got Here: Creighton defeated Akron, Oregon. Tennessee defeated Saint Peter's, Texas.
Odds: Tennessee -2.5

There are all sorts of exciting things about this matchup on paper, starting with a showdown between two of the most prolific scorers in college basketball in Tennessee's Dalton Knecht and Creighton's Baylor Scheierman.

While Knecht carries his team on his back offensively, Scheierman has significant help in the form of center Ryan Kalkbrenner (17.4 points per game) and Trey Alexander (17.7 ppg).

This is a result of Creighton's three-point happy, fast-paced offense that allows their stars lots of possessions to get opportunities. Scheierman and Alexander shoot the ball well from deep, and Kalkbrenner creates all sorts of mismatches down low while finishing up a lot of misses on the offensive glass.

They're going to meet a good match for that style in this game, as Tennessee features center Jonas Aidoo to try to line up against Kalkbrenner, while the Volunteers have plenty of strong defenders at guard and on the wing and will look to slow the pace of the Bluejays down to a point they're more comfortable with.

Normally in this sort of matchup, I'd pick the faster and more offensively gifted team, and there's no doubt that Creighton is that, but we've seen physical teams give the Bluejays trouble in recent years, and there's no team more physical than Rick Barnes' Volunteers. We have seen this team get into slugfests in the tournament, drag a team down to their style, and beat them. Last year's win over Duke immediately springs to mind. Vols, close.