Home is where the money is.
The Cincinnati Reds and right-handed pitcher Homer Bailey have agreed to a six-year, $105 million contract. The deal was first reported by MLB.com
As recently as January, Bailey wasn't sure if a contract extension would happen.
"There is [interest], but it has to be something that works out for both ends," Bailey said on Sunday. "That's kind of tough to do. You see a lot of the signings that are going on, so, of course, it's going to raise eyebrows on my behalf. Obviously, with a mid-market team, it's tougher for them, also. We're just going to have to see how everything goes."
Bailey, 27, went 11-12, with a 3.49 ERA with the Reds in 2013. He achieved career highs in innings pitched (209.0) strikeouts (199) and WHIP (1.124). Bailey is the third pitcher this off-season to sign a contract worth more than $100 million. For those who forget, Masahiro Tanaka signed a seven-year, $155 million contract with the Yankees. Clayton Kershaw signed a seven-year, $215 million contract extension with the Dodgers. Tanaka is pitching his first season with the Yankees while Kershaw is a two-time NL Cy Young award winner.
Bailey's contract will no doubt be marred in controversy. Despite being a good pitcher, Bailey is barely over .500 for his career. In seven Major League seasons, Bailey is 49-45, with a 4.25 ERA. He's thrown two no-hitters over the past two seasons, which is impressive. However, two historic games are not worth $105 million. Quite frankly, neither is Bailey.
Take a look at Bailey's numbers compared to other pitchers signed this off-season. Ricky Nolasco, who signed a four-year, $49 million with the Twins, went 13-11, with a 3.70 ERA in 2013. At age 31, Nolasco is still in the prime of his career. His career record, which stands at 89-75, with a lifetime 4.37 ERA in eight seasons, is not much worse than Bailey's record. If anything, fans could argue that Nolasco is better pitcher than Bailey. Despite being four years older than Bailey, Nolasco deserves more money than what the Twins gave him, if you compare his contract to Nolasco's contract.
Ubaldo Jimenez, who signed a four-year, $48 million contract with the Orioles on Monday, also has numbers similar to Bailey. Last season Jimenez went 13-9, with a 3.30 ERA. In 182.2 innings, he struck out 194 batters. In eight Major League seasons, Jimenez is 82-75, with a 3.92 ERA. He has a higher K/9 (8.3 for Jimenez, compared to 7.4 for Bailey) and innings per season average (205 for Jimenez, 203 for Bailey). Age shouldn't be a factor because Jimenez just turned 30 this off-season. By all accounts, Jimenez is still in his prime. So why is it that Bailey gets such a large contract?
The Reds want to keep their young nucleus together. Had Bailey been allowed to reach free agency, he may have gotten a larger contract offer by a more desperate team. Bailey is not worth $105 million. He's a good, young pitcher with potential. But as of right now, that potential isn't worth a $105 million invest. The Reds should've waited to discuss contract talks with Bailey. Had the Reds waited, they could've seen how Bailey progressed this season.
$105 million is a risk, especially considering the team has a lot of young pitchers approaching free agency. Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos and Mike Leake are free agents in 2016. Signing Bailey long-term might prohibit the team from resigning their other starters.
Homer Bailey is a good pitcher. He's not a great pitcher and definitely not worth $105 million. No pitcher is worth $105 million and unless something is done, contracts will continue to increase at astronomical levels. A friend and Colorado based sports talk show host, Michael Luper, told me he one day expects a contract to reach $1 billion. That is possible if Major League Baseball continues with this barrage of spending.
Yet that doesn't matter. Bailey will be calling Cincinnati home for quite some time.
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