Fantasy baseball 2014 draft strategy: Is Scott Kazmir the new Cliff Lee?

Scott Kazmir was handed a two-year, $22 million contract by Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s this offseason. The former top prospect was out of baseball from 2011-2012, but revived his career with a productive season in Cleveland in 2013.

Bonus: AL underrated pitching sleepers

Kazmir was 29 years old last season when he went 10-9 with a 4.04 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 162 strikeouts over 158 innings.

You know another 29-year-old lefty who turned his career around in Cleveland? How bout Cliff Lee back in 2008.

Lee was a highly regarded, albeit inconsistent, young pitcher who won 46 games from 2004 through 2006 with a 4.50 ERA during that span.

Kazmir won 45 games from 2005 through 2008, with a 3.51 ERA over that span. The lefty seemed to have Cy Young potential, but never put it all together and started to fall apart in 2009.

Back in 2007 while Kazmir was thriving, things went sour for Lee. He posted a miserable 6.29 ERA over 97.1 innings and was demoted to the minors. Lee seemed like a long shot to continue his career as anything more than a left-handed reliever.

OK, OK… I know Lee’s falloff wasn’t as drastic or prolonged as Kazmir, who was literally out of baseball. But Kazmir was better at his previous peak.

In 2008, during his age-29 season, Lee was reborn as an ace. After going undrafted in most fantasy leagues, he went 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. He only issued 34 walks all season, finishing with a 170/34 K/BB ratio, en route to the AL Cy Young Award.

I’m not saying Scott Kazmir will win the AL Cy Young this season. I’m definitely not predicting Lee-style playoff greatness for Kazmir anytime soon. But the similarities are undeniable between the two pitchers. They’ve had similar career paths and Oakland brass obviously thinks Kazmir can build on his age-29 campaign.

With an average draft position of No. 191 on CBSSports.com leagues, it’s clear that Kazmir is worth the gamble on Draft Day. He just might be the next Cliff Lee. And Billy Beane is smarter than we are.

Questions? Hit me on Twitter @briansflood