Before the year started, I gave you some of the top infield sleepers getting drafted outside the Top 200. Now, we're a month in and it's time to see how my boys have fared.
*All ADPs taken from FantasyPros.com
Catcher: Yan Gomes (ADP-217.5), Cleveland Indians (Other positions: None)
Yan Gomes is going to get full-time at-bats in Cleveland this year with Carlos Santana moving to the corner infield spots. Last year Gomes batted .294 with 11 home runs and 38 RBI in 322 at-bats. In his extended minor league stays Gomes was a high on-base guy, and his 2012 batting average (.204) can be overlooked because of a hideous BABIP that corrected last year.
Most of the time Gomes can be had with your last pick, and he possesses 15-18 home run potential, with a likely high OBP despite a poor walk rate. If he can train his eye with more regular at-bats, Gomes will absolutely be a steal.
After one month: So far Gomes has been okay, but fallen short of my expectations. He's hitting .250 with three home runs and two doubles. His poor walk rate which I mentioned during spring training is hurting him now, as his bat skills aren't really overcoming his atrocious walk rate. Still, his HR/FB ratio is the highest of his career, and for a final round pick he's been at bare minimum a nice fill-in.
First Base: Adam Lind (ADP-269.4), Toronto Blue Jays (Other positions: None)
How does a guy who hits cleanup in a stacked batting order, had 23 home runs, and plays in a home run haven sound? What if I told you that he could definitely be had with your last pick? If you like that, then take Adam Lind. He has a reputation as a streaky player, but if you're in a roto league why does that matter?
Since 2009 here are Lind's home run totals: 35, 23, 26, 11, 23. In 2012 when he had 11 he only had 353 at-bats. He's had consistent home run to fly ball totals, absolutely crushes right-handers, and historically excels in September when you'll be gunning for your title.
After one month: Lind hasn't played since April 15 because of an injury, but prior to that he was killing the ball. He posted a .324 batting average with a home run, six RBIs, seven runs scored, a .465 on-base percentage and a .500 slugging percentage. Despite the unfortunate injury, I'd say this was one of my better calls.
Second Base: Brad Miller (ADP-206), Seattle Mariners (Other positions: SS)
Miller is going to open the season as Seattle's shortstop, although his competition with Nick Franklin's not yet closed. There's decent depth at this position, but Miller could provide Top 7 upside at either 2B or SS, and can be had with one of your last four picks.
Through every level of the minors Miller was a rock solid batting average guy, and hit .265 with 335 MLB plate appearances with an uncharacteristically low BABIP.
After one month: Well, here's my first big bust after one month. Miller's batting a measly .176 in 90 at-bats, and despite showing good power (three home runs) I billed him as a "rock solid batting average guy." Bad on me, I apologize. However, I'll point out his BABIP is still pretty darn low so don't cut bait.
Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins (ADP-207.8), Philadelphia Phillies (Other positions: None)
Boy oh boy how the mighty have fallen. Once a first-round pick on a perennial World Series contender, J-Roll has fallen out of favor with his manager AND with fantasy owners. The hate has gone too far.
Rollins is aging (35 years old), but not ancient, and showed last year he still has some wheels (22 SB). What really destroyed Rollins' value to teams last year was a ridiculous drop in home runs from 23 in 2012 to six in 2013. Even for a guy getting older power doesn't just disappear like that. So what happened?
Basically, he was unlucky in terms of homers. His fly ball rate dropped a little, but they didn't become dreaded grounders--Rollins actually had a near career-high line drive percentage last year. Rollins' OBP was in line with his career, his walk rate was similar, and he's making too much dough to get benched. Draft him late and you'll probably be pleased.
After one month: He has cooled off since a hot start. In the first 16 games of the year Rollins hit .292 with three home runs and 13 RBIs, right in line with my prediction of pop. Since then the numbers have dipped a little, and he hasn't started stealing yet.
Third Base: David Freese (ADP-296.8), Los Angeles Angels (Other Positions: None)
Third base isn't particularly good this year, and even if you draft your stud early chances are he's got some kind of injury risk attached to him. Freese can definitely be had with your final pick, and is getting totally overlooked because of a fluky power outage last year.
In 2012 he swatted 20 bombs, with a 20.7 percent home run to fly ball ratio. That came after hitting 10 in just over 300 plate appearances with a 16.7 percent ratio. I could easily see him coming close to 20 again in the Angels stacked lineup. Plus, he's a high-OBP guy (career .356 OBP) which can lead to a spike in runs. Let's say you lose Adrian Beltre or David Wright for a lengthy period of time-wouldn't hurt to have a Freese pop to plop in.
After one month: Simply put, Freese has been ice cold. He's hitting under .200 with a meager two home runs and eight RBIs. His ground balls are down, fly balls way up and line drives the same as last year, but he wasn't anything special in 2013. Feel free to cut bait...my bad.
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