As the MLB season wears on, the stats players accumulate begin to hold more significance. Flukes are not easy to sustain for a month and a half of play, while slumps edging into this part of the season may be trends. Each Thursday, SWN will be highlighting some potential trade targets that may be buy-low or sell-high candidates.
Justin Verlander (DET), SP
At one point in the not-too-distant past, Verlander was so good that he not only won the Cy Young award, he was named the American League MVP as well. He signed a humongous contract two offseasons ago, and since then has been passed as the Tigers' ace by Max Scherzer. That's okay, since Scherzer wound up with the 2013 AL Cy Young award, but Verlander's fall has continued.
In 66 innings in 2014, Verlander's record is at 5-3, with a 3.55 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 1.81 K/BB ratio. While last year's struggles could be overlooked a little bit because of his consistent strikeout numbers, this year his K/9 has dipped from 8.95 to 6.68. His walks are up too, which is definitely not what fantasy owners want to see from a guy they're counting on as an ace.
His velocity has remained the same, and he is actually inducing more ground balls than usual-so that's good. But overall, the signs are indicating that this is the new Verlander. That's not to say he's a bad pitcher-he's still very good. He's no longer on the level of a Clayton Kershaw, or even Max Scherzer, but hasn't hit CC Sabathia depths.
Verdict: Sell Verlander. I'd advise against trading for him unless Kate Upton's coming with him. His name drives up the price to an untenable cost. If you're getting proper value, he's a decent add-but you're not going to get proper value.
David Price (TB), SP
Price has been a curious case this year. My personal pick to win the Cy Young has a 4.28 ERA which is very ugly for a fantasy ace, and a 1.21 WHIP. The WHIP is decent, but far higher than is typical for Price.
Advanced numbers are friendlier to him though, as his FIP is more than a full run lower than his actual ERA. His strikeout numbers are through the roof-he's setting down 10 batters per nine innings via the strikeout, and walking less than one per game. That's awesome, especially if your league counts K/BB as a category.
The problem here has been an unusually high amount of home runs. Price's HR/FB ratio is above 14 percent, and while he's been somewhat susceptible to gopher balls his entire career 2014 has been ridiculous. His velocity's just fine, and he's giving up fewer line drives than last year.
Verdict: Buy low on Price if you can. He's every bit as good as he's ever been right now, and the home run spike will correct itself. Remember, you're paying for what he will do, not what he's done.
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