Each year there are sleepers who are picked in the mid-to-late rounds that win leagues for their owners. On the flip side, there are big-ticket players that get taken too early and sink those owners' chances. Each year it's super fun to identify the sleepers, but it might be more important to recognize the busts.
Here are the top 5 likeliest busts at second base. These busts are always relative to draft position.
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros (ADP-12, Other positions: none)
Altuve is a pretty big name to land on a busts list, but keep in mind the characterization doesn't mean he'll stink-it means he won't produce up to his ADP.
Altuve is a fine second baseman, and he'll provide lots of runs as well as stolen bases. He hit .341, but he benefitted greatly from a sky-high .360 BABIP. That's not sustainable whatsoever, so expect him to hit closer to the .280 range. Quality 2B? Absolutely. But not the top dog at the position, and certainly not a true first-rounder.
Dee Gordon, Miami Marlins (ADP-60, Other positions: none)
Gordon was huge last year because of his 64 stolen bases, and he still has the wheels for that, but like Altuve, his unsustainable BABIP allowed him to hit .289. In 2012 he hit .228, and the following year he hit .234. Both of those came with limited plate appearances, but the potential is there for Gordon to be an anchor in multiple aspects of fantasy.
For big steals just draft Ben Revere late.
Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins (ADP-64, Other positions: none)
Dozier's total line looks pretty good, but a look at the splits reveals a dirty little secret. 18 of Dozier's 23 home runs came in the first half of the season. Over his final 64 games Dozier hit .244, two points higher than in the first half, but smacked five home runs, 13 fewer than his first half.
Dozier has decent power, but his average is a cause for concern, and the 21 stolen bases might be tough to repeat. Dozier could be useful, but only if it's at the right price. At No. 64 overall, there's a chance for him to be overtaken by much cheaper options.
Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox (ADP-95, Other positions: none)
Pedroia was once a top option at 2B, right up there with Robinson Cano, but these days it's tough to trust the former MVP. Pedroia is still being taken as a Top 10 2B, but he hasn't hit double-digit home runs in two straight seasons, and last season he hit ground balls more than 50 percent of the time he made contact.
RBI will be tougher to come by if he's hitting higher up in the batting order, although his runs will rise to combat that. Overall Pedroia may prove to be a steady positive contributor. The problem is the younger, more exciting players that may pass him by.
Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP-164, Other positions: none)
At this point Kendrick's upside is low, as is his floor. He's the 15th 2B off the board, ahead of names like Chase Utley (older, but bigger ceiling), and Javier Baez (disaster potential, as well as star potential).
The point of fantasy sports is to have fun, and there's nothing less fun than grabbing unexciting, limited players before the very end of a draft. Try for some flash rather than locking in high .200s with middling power.
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