Over/unders are some of the most common bets NFL fans make during the preseason because they are simple to understand, and tap into most fans’ love of prognosticating. For those who don’t bet much, over/unders are simply a win total assigned to a team before the season starts by oddsmakers. Bettors can then wager on whether or not that particular team will win more or fewer games than the total.
Today’s case will be the Patriots, who have been raked over the coals all offseason thanks to Tom Brady’s Deflategate drama.
5 things to know about Jimmy Garoppolo
New England Patriots, O/U 10.5
Tom Brady is still battling the four-game suspension handed down by the NFL for his involvement in “Deflategate,” a controversy in which Brady’s was ruled “more probable than not” to have known Pats attendants were deflating footballs to illegal levels to gain a competitive advantage.
Because of this, the Patriots will have to run Jimmy Garoppolo, a second-year player with 27 career pass attempts, for a quarter of the season instead of a six-time champion and future Hall of Famer. Grantland’s Bill Barnwell attempted to figure out the effect Brady’s absence will have on New England, and some of his findings were startling. The initial lines that included Brady shifted five or more points in each game in favor of the opponent.
How will Deflategate affect fantasy football?
The Pats’ odds of going 0-4 vs. the Steelers, Bills, Jaguars and Cowboys with Brady were at a microscopic 0.8 percent, while it jumped to 8.3 percent with Garoppolo. Unlikely? Of course. But it is still a big jump. Without Brady the Patriots’ were expected to win 2.4 games, while that drops to less than two with Garoppolo under center. If the Patriots go 1-3 without Brady, they would have to go 10-2 over their final 12 games to hit their over.
Brady is talented enough to do that, but the problem is that the AFC East loaded up this offseason in response to New England’s Super Bowl. The Jets went back in time and signed cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie back, two players who helped New York upset New England in the AFC playoffs 2010. The Bills added Rex Ryan as head coach, have one of the NFL’s best defenses, and brought in playmakers LeSean McCoy and Charles Clay to boost the offense. The Dolphins also improved, adding Ndamukong Suh to one of the offseason’s biggest contracts.
Expecting Brady to come in after four games off, hit the ground running, and dominate a slate that will include five games against those divisional opponents, is a long shot. Right now, SportsBook has -130 odds on the Patriots going under, while the over is even. Jump on that under now, because unless his suspension gets reduced, 11 wins may be a stretch.
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