Rookies are scary buys in redraft leagues, because often talent is not the most important factor. It takes time for rookies to adapt to the speed of the NFL game, and the complexity of pro game plans.
In keeper leagues though, rookies are crucial. These are the top 10 rookies in 2015 to target in your keeper and dynasty leagues. Average draft position (ADP) data is courtesy of FantasyPros.com.
10. Dorial-Green Beckham, WR, Titans (ADP: 182)
The man they call DGB was arguably the best physical talent in the entire draft, but an ugly off-the-field history dropped his stock significantly. As a second-round pick for the Titans, DGB has a chance to begin his NFL journey with a fellow rookie who will appear later on this list, QB Marcus Mariota. If he keeps his head on straight, Green-Beckham may be getting taken much higher in drafts next year, but you keeper/dynasty folk will have a bargain.
9. David Cobb, RB, Titans (ADP: 138)
Cobb isn’t being noticed by many drafters yet, but players who are drafting early are getting a steal. He blew up as a senior at Minnesota, and has a clear path to a starting job right away—trampling Bishop Sankey. He should be able to do that, and he’ll have a long leash in Tennessee, where expectations in 2015 are low.
8. Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers (ADP: 155)
Winston went No. 1 overall, but he wouldn’t have if I ran the Buccaneers. The good news for Winston, who has interception problems, is that he is surrounded by elite WR talent. Mike Evans is a star, and Vincent Jackson has been a quality receiver for the last eight years. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins has big upside. Winston has the necessary help, as long as his offense can keep him healthy.
7. Nelson Agholor, WR, Eagles (ADP: 89)
Everyone’s drooling about Jordan Matthews’ fantasy potential now that Jeremy Maclin has moved on, but they should really be focusing on Agholor’s. Matthews is a high-end slot receiver, and it’s unlikely Chip Kelly will move him. Expect Agholor to take over Maclin’s spot, and catch some long TDs.
6. T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jaguars (ADP: 59)
Yeldon is reminiscent of another Alabama running back who is killing it in the NFL—Eddie Lacy of the Packers. Other owners may harken back to Trent Richardson when they hear “Alabama running back.” Yeldon is hurt by a lack of receiving skills, but he’s a hammer near the goal line, and a very tough runner.
Jacksonville has a workhorse now, and he will be steady and durable for a long time.
5. Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers (ADP: 33)
Gordon was someone the Chargers moved up to get, and he is the clear starter from Day 1. The presence of Danny Woodhead is a little troublesome for right now, because Gordon will be coming off the field on third downs. He didn’t catch the ball much in college either, so we don’t know if he’s a pass-catching option. Right now, that limits his upside just a tiny bit.
4. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Lions (ADP: 75)
Abdullah CAN catch the football, and in the preseason has shown more sizzle than Gordon. Abdullah was the less prolific in the college ranks, but he has more elusiveness and top end speed which lend to the NFL game. If Abdullah proves durable, he’ll be a three-down back for the Lions, a high-octane offense.
Fantasy owners should be envisioning Brian Westbrook as a best-case scenario. And that would be great.
3. Todd Gurley, RB, Rams (ADP: 51)
Gurley is the prototype. You don’t like the knee injury that cut his season short last year, but his size is perfect, he’s extremely athletic, and very, very fast. He shouldn’t be returning kicks in the NFL, but watching his highlights as a return man are a clue to what kind of vision he possesses. If he stays on the field he’s a foundational fantasy player.
2. Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans (ADP: 163)
Mariota is not necessarily someone to rely on this year, but moving forward you will have a brilliant quarterback. Mariota simply didn’t throw picks at Oregon, and in camp it became a story how he wasn’t getting intercepted. He has a quick delivery, a laser arm, and he can run with the best of them at his position.
Mariota is a Russell Wilson type, only more polished. It remains to be seen if he can run with the same violence as Wilson, but he’s definitely faster. In leagues with four-point passing TDs, Mariota is going to develop into a fantastic option.
1. Amari Cooper, WR, Raiders (ADP: 48)
Cooper is the top WR in this class, and he’s so good I’m not even worried that he plays for Oakland. When you look at Cooper, it’s hard not to see Julio Jones. His route running is perfect, and he has excellent hands. And unlike Mariota, who has to develop, or Gurley, who has to get well, Cooper is good out of the gate.
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