Congratulations to the Miami Dolphins. The team won its first division crown since 2008, besting the New England Patriots in the AFC East.
Except the Dolphins didn't, it's only September and everyone needs to calm down.
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Inexplicably, Miami's bandwagon is increasingly popular in 2015. Even Jon Gruden decided to hop aboard on Wednesday.
@ESPN's Jon Gruden says #Dolphins will win 10-12 games https://t.co/WF7mXLVCfh"-Agree or disagree with the Super Bowl-winning coach?
— James Walker (@JamesWalkerNFL) September 9, 2015
"I think this is the year the Dolphins win the AFC East,'' he said on ESPN's Mike & Mike radio show, per the Sun Sentinel. "I saw them manhandle New England last year in the opening game. I think [Ryan] Tannehill is coming into his own. It's his fourth year. Joe Philbin has been there four years.
"I like Miami a lot. If they can get off to a good start and get this pass rush involved in the fourth quarter of games, I think Miami can win 10 to 12 games this year."
Okay, Jon. Let's dissect this argument and reveal why the Patriots are still the class of the AFC East.
The Schedule
To Gruden's point, the Dolphins do boast a favorable schedule in the opening weeks. The Redskins, Jaguars, Bills, Jets, Titans and Texans all missed the playoffs in 2014, opening the door for a potential scorching start. But it's not how you start, it's how you finish.
Five of Miami's last 10 games will be against playoff teams. An additional two will be against teams who finished last season with a winning record.
Ryan Tannehill Isn't Tom Brady
There's no denying the progression of Ryan Tannehill—seeing every major statistical category improve on a yearly basis—but his record in the AFC East will need a dramatic uptick if Miami is to buck the trend in 2015. Over the past two seasons, Tannehill is 5-7 in the AFC East, with a 40.7 QBR over that span.
Ryan Tannehill has an 80% completion percentage while under pressure this preseason, best in NFL. pic.twitter.com/777uP3WAZX
— PFF (@PFF) August 31, 2015
Even Geno Smith performed better (42.3). That's not company you want to keep, let alone be surpassed by.
Lamar Miller Won't Get The Ball Enough
Despite Miami's best efforts, Lamar Miller rushed for 1,099 yards and eight TDs last season. He averaged just 13.5 rushes per game, and the coaching staff was consistently reluctant to feed him the ball after a number of productive runs.
As if that wasn't bad enough, the Dolphins added Jonas Gray to the practice squad on Tuesday, further highlighting the team's reluctance to hand Miller the keys.
Lamar Miller should be a pro bowler this year.... But every time you set a high expectation on a dolphin or the dolphins they usually on U
— ZMIV (@D1_Zeezy) September 8, 2015
It's that level of stubbornness that can derail a team's season.
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