The Pirates magic number is down to one and a third straight season with a champagne-soaked celebration is almost inevitable, but they still have a lot to play for.
Entering Wednesday, Pittsburgh (91-60) is ahead of Chicago (89-62) by two games in the wild-card standings and owns the second best record in baseball. The Pirates are also hunting down the Cardinals (95-56), whom they trail by four games in the race for the NL Central crown in what has been baseball's best division all season long.
Contending Players To Keep An Eye On In NL Push To Playoffs
Assuming things stay the way they are, though a lot can change in the last 11 games for Pittsburgh, here is the likely rotation the Pirates will go with for the playoffs. Sticking with the way things are right now, though six games remain with the Cubs and Cardinals for the Pirates, Pittsburgh would host Chicago at PNC Park then, if it won, head to Busch Stadium for an NLDS matchup with St. Louis.
Starting with the Wild Card Game, it's a no brainer that Gerrit Cole will toe the rubber, but he'll have to beat the seemingly unstoppable Jake Arrieta (MLB-best 20 wins) to do so. Cole is third in the league with 17 wins and fifth with a 2.64 ERA. The right-hander has also held lefties to a .231 batting average and is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA against the Cubs this season.
Jake Arrieta Starting Over Jon Lester In Wild-Card Game Is A No-Brainer
If the Pirates survive that test, Francisco Liriano (11-7, 3.41), who outdueld Clayton Kershaw last time out, appears to be the next man up in a potential NLDS Game 1 battle with the Cardinals.
Despite his struggles lately (4.43 ERA in September), the lefty deserves a spot in the rotation. He's also fit to start Game 1 in Busch Stadium as his away numbers (7-3, 2.47) outshine his efforts at home (4-4, 4.28).
Next up, it seems veteran A.J. Burnett (9-5, 3.15) should factor into the rotation, though he perhaps should be saved for Game 3 when the series would return home. Burnett is 7-2 with a 3.96 ERA this season on the road, while he has pitched to a 2-3, 2.40 mark at home.
One concern with Burnett is that he recently returned from an elbow injury so there is a risk there with him. Still, his eight starts in the postseason warrant adding him to the rotation. Burnett, along with Liriano, lost to the Cardinals in the 2013 NLDS.
For the last spot, J.A. Happ (10-8, 3.88), Charlie Morton (9-8, 4.26) and Jeff Locke (8-11, 4.48) will compete. Happ notched his 10th victory Tuesday and is 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA in the second half, so he is the likely choice to take the fourth spot. Morton has a 4.50 ERA in September and struggled against the Cubs on Thursday, yielding five runs in four innings. Locke has a 5.13 second half ERA.
Here's a breakdown of the competition to start for the Pirates, which includes our projected rotation in the first four spots:
|
Pitcher |
2015 Numbers |
Career Playoff Numbers |
2015 Against Cardinals (Potential NLDS) |
|
Gerrit Cole (RHP) |
17-8, 2.64 ERA |
2 Starts, 1-1; 2.45 ERA |
2-1, 2.33 ERA |
|
Francisco Liriano (LHP) |
11-7, 3.41 |
3S; 1-0, 3.00 |
1-1, 3.71 |
|
A.J. Burnett (RHP) |
9-5, 3.15 |
8S; 2-3, 6.37 |
0-0, 2.19 |
|
J.A. Happ (LHP) |
10-8, 3.88 |
1S (8G); 0-0, 4.82 |
1-0, 0.00 |
|
Charlie Morton (RHP) |
9-8, 4.26 |
1S 0-1, 3.18 |
0-1, 1.50 |
|
Jeff Locke (LHP) |
8-11, 4.48 |
N/A |
0-2, 4.32 |
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