Zack Greinke, who had MLB’s best ERA in 2015 and may win his second Cy Young award, has opted out of his current contract with the Dodgers and become an unrestricted free agent.
Zack Greinke has officially opted out. He is a free agent. #Dodgers
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) November 4, 2015
Greinke, 32, was 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, which will make him arguably the most sought-after free agent of this offseason. It’s likely he will command a salary well north of $25 million a year; his teammate Clayton Kershaw will be making upward of $35 million a season, and Greinke outperformed him this season by several metrics. Greinke’s age depresses the price tag a bit, but two-time Cy Young winners don’t grow on trees, or sign cheap.
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Here are the three most likely destinations for Greinke in 2016.
Los Angeles Dodgers
This could be a hard sell. The Dodgers’ payroll is bloated, with seven players scheduled to earn more than $10 million in 2016. Most of those contracts are tied to old players; only Kershaw, 28, is under the age of 33. Inking Greinke to a long-term deal as one of the highest-paid players in baseball looks good now, but it puts immense pressure on the team to win now, and hamstrings them in their efforts to improve the rest of this creaky roster.
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Still, no team in MLB has the money to throw around that the Dodgers do, and if management decides Greinke and the remaining nucleus are enough to win the title under whatever new manager they hire, they won’t be outbid.
Boston Red Sox
The Sox have a killer lineup that features a nice blend of up-and-coming players (Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts) and playoff-hardened veterans (David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia), but the rotation was putrid in 2015. Their payroll has several ugly deals on it, but with Greinke at the top of their rotation, he could form a formidable one-two punch with Clay Buchholz.
The immediate rewards are obvious, but it also locks the Red Sox into him as he gets older. Boston is already watching 2015 free agent acquisitions Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval decay before their eyes, and they are stuck with Ramirez through 2019, and Sandoval through 2020. They may not be eager to pay for Greinke’s inevitable decline.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals may be cheap when it comes to their managers, but they’ll spend big on players. The Nats have Jordan Zimmermann, Ian Desmond, and Doug Fister coming off the books, which would free them to make a huge splash and pay Greinke. He would join a rotation that already includes Max Scherzer, who threw two no-hitters in 2015, and Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals are also home to outfielder Bryce Harper, the overwhelming favorite to win the NL MVP award.
The only big money they are committed to long term is for Scherzer, Ryan Zimmerman, and eventually a megadeal for Harper. Signing pitchers older than 30 to exorbitant deals is typically unwise long-term, but with that trio atop their rotation, Washington would likely be the favorite to win the World Series.
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