No one outside of ESPN knows how QBR, an ESPN-created statistic that has been billed as the most accurate measure of a quarterback’s performance that factors in “clutch” situations, is calculated. But one man who doesn’t believe in QBR is HBO’s “Sports Guy” Bill Simmons.
Simmons tweeted out a link to a Pro Football Talk talk article that discovered the single-greatest game ever, according to QBR, was engineered by the supremely mortal Charlie Batch. In that epic affair, Batch threw for 186 yards and was picked off twice.
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Michael Smith of Pro Football Talk detailed some of the key moments of Batch’s allegedly forgettable performance, including then-Buccaneers corner Aqib Talib dropping an easy pick, and two touchdown passes that came on questionable throws in which the receivers made great plays on.
Smith also highlighted a nice touchdown pass Batch threw to Hines Ward, but then brought up a terrible pick he threw after that, which he speculated didn’t hirt his QBR as much as the touchdown helped because the scoring pass was “clutch-weighted.”
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Even more bizarre, Batch’s 99.9 QBR matched that of Carson Palmer’s vs. the Bears in 2009, and Tom Brady’s vs. the Dolphins in 2007. Both Palmer and Brady were superior to Batch in Pass EPA (clutch-weighted expected points added on plays with pass attempts) and Total EPA. So why does Batch get top billing?
Simmons has attacked QBR on his podcasts before, and there are some head-scratching realities. In 2015, Cam Newton is widely considered a frontrunner for the MVP award. He has led the Panthers to an unexpected 9-0 start, and yet he ranks just 21st in QBR. He’s ranked 14 spots behind Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Jets and 11 spots behind Brian Hoyer, who started the season on the pine behind Ryan Mallett.
Newton’s Run EPA (expected points added through rushes) is 8.3. That’s a great number, and Newton has rushed for 366 yards and six touchdowns. Fitzpatrick’s Run EPA is 9.9. It’s fair to say Fitzpatrick’s contributed an underrated amount on the ground, but his 154 yards and one rushing score don’t compare to Newton’s performance.
Simmons and PFT have a point, ESPN needs to go back to the drawing board on their stat.
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