The Giants added Jeff Samardzija to their rotation when they missed out on Zack Greinke, who signed with the division rival Diamondbacks. But San Francisco wasn’t done tweaking their pitching staff, and added World Series champion Johnny Cueto to the mix on a six-year, $130 million contract on Monday.
The knee-jerk reaction is to now anoint the Giants’ staff as the best in MLB. But do their big additions grant them that honor? The Mets might have something to say about that. Here is a comparison of their rotations, with the order based on RosterResource.com’s projections.
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No. 1: Madison Bumgarner vs. Jacob deGrom
Bumgarner has won 18 games in back-to-back seasons, topped 200 innings in five straight seasons, and struck out more than a batter per nine in consecutive campaigns. He has won three World Series titles, and in 2014 put forth arguably the greatest World Series performance in history. Bumgarner pitched 21 innings, giving up just one run, and going 2-0, while clinching the title with a five-inning save on short rest. Good resume.
deGrom hasn’t been in the league long enough to compete with that. He has, however, won a Rookie of the Year award, matched Bumgarner’s strikeout-per-nine prowess, and anchored the Mets’ NL Champion rotation in 2015. deGrom has the opportunity to be every bit as good as Bumgarner, but he’s actually a year older than him and far less accomplished. Advantage: Giants
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No. 2: Johnny Cueto vs. Matt Harvey
Cueto will haunt the Mets’ dreams, having thrown a complete game in Game 2 of the World Series against the Mets and outdueling deGrom. Cueto showed his good and bad sides this year with the Royals. He is capable of complete dominance, and other times he looks dreadful (peep his ALCS Game 3 meltdown). But at his best, Cueto is one of the best pitchers in the sport.
The same can be said of Harvey, the “Dark Knight” of Gotham. Harvey’s Tommy John surgery is behind him, and he resumed overpowering batters in 2015. Cueto’s second half of 2015 was more likely his true self than the sub-3.00 ERAs he had been posting. His FIP is annually higher than his ERA, and for that reason, Harvey wins out on upside. Advantage: Mets
No. 3 Jeff Samardzija vs. Steven Matz
Samardzija is a flashy signing, but in truth, he has not been a great MLB pitcher. He hasn’t posted a winning record since 2011, and his strikeout rate dipped to 6.88 per nine innings last season. He pitched to a 4.96 ERA and saw his ground ball rate dip below 40 percent. That is because he switched his selection up, and threw significantly fewer fastballs. Instead he ramped up the usage of his slider and cutter to disastrous results. That is likely to come down, but even at his best Samardzija’s FIP suggests he’s a low-3.00s ERA type of pitcher.
Matz, on the other hand, is all upside. He could potentially be the best of the Mets’ four starters, but there’s only 35 innings worth of data on him. If this were a measure of value, there’s no doubt Matz would have the edge, but right now there’s no evidence that Matz can stay healthy, or remain effective over the course of a full season. Advantage: Giants
No. 4: Jake Peavy vs. Noah Syndergaard
Peavy has a decade on Syndergaard in the age department, but their stats in 2015 weren’t too dissimilar. Peavy went 8-6 with a 3.58 ERA, and specialized in keeping the ball inside the park. For a guy with a weak K/9 (6.34) the Giants probably would have liked to see him induce more ground balls.
Syndergaard, 23, is more promise than production at the moment. But his ceiling is almost limitless. “Thor” struck out nearly 10 batters per nine, and averaged 96.5 miles per hour on his fastball, and a scary 97 miles per hour on his sinker. His production over 150 innings was better than Peavy’s and his ceiling is infinitely higher. Advantage: Mets
No. 5: Matt Cain vs. Logan Verett
Cain, once one of MLB’s best pitchers, has been outright horrible for two seasons. He has battled injuries and ineffectiveness, and probably should not have bumped Chris Heston from the rotation.
Verrett is simply a placeholder for Zack Wheeler, once a Giant, who is expected back from Tommy John in June or July. When Wheeler returns he absolutely gives the Mets the edge. As it stands, Verrett has to be given the nod based on the fact that he hasn’t pitched at the MLB level, while Cain has, badly. Advantage: Mets
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