The Broncos opened this week a 6 ½-point favorite over the Steelers in the AFC Divisional round playoffs, which is a surprising spread based on the turmoil Denver has experienced offensively this season. They switched back to Peyton Manning in Week 17, a move that led to a win, but was not universally endorsed.
That same Peyton Manning is starting this week vs. the Steelers, and his track record this year is shaky. He’s thrown nine touchdown passes against 17 interceptions, and that’s not even the statistic that figures to push bettors way over to the Steelers’ side. That stat would be Manning’s record in “cold-weather” playoff games.
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Cold-weather games, defined as games played in sub-40-degree weather, have been unkind to Manning. He’s 0-5 in such circumstances, with five touchdowns and nine interceptions. Not great. It hurts even more that his performance this season has been the worst of his career, leaving bettors with precious little to go on if they wanted to trust him – even at home – in this matchup.
What makes the bet look even worse is that both Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Antonio Brown are expected to play in the game after suffering injuries Saturday night vs. the Bengals. Roethlisberger suffered a shoulder injury, while Brown took a hard shot to the head that left him with a concussion.
Roethlisberger was initially feared to have a separated shoulder, but CBS’ Jason LaConfora reported it’s merely a strain.
However, Steelers optimistic that without setback he could play Sunday. He has a shoulder strain and will spend most of week in treatment
— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) January 11, 2016
As for Brown, Gerry Dulac of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported that Brown is in the concussion protocol, but “is said to be fine and should be able to play against the Broncos.”
The Denver defense, ranked No. 1 in the NFL, will be formidable for a Steelers’ offense with an injured quarterback, running back and No. 1 receiver, but Manning’s decreasing arm strength, and terrible track record in the cold, should stop gamblers from laying 6 ½ points.
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