MIAMI — Lionel Messi's prospects of lifting the FIFA World Cup trophy for a second time in 2026 stand at roughly 11 percent according to current betting markets, with defending champions Argentina positioned as joint third or fourth favorites behind Spain, France and England.
The eight-time Ballon d'Or winner turned 38 in June 2025 and will be 39 during the expanded 48-team tournament co-hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico from June 11 to July 19, 2026. While Messi has not yet confirmed his participation, Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni has made clear the decision rests entirely with the superstar, who continues to deliver at club level with Inter Miami in Major League Soccer.
Betting odds for Argentina to win the 2026 World Cup have stabilized around +800 in recent weeks, translating to an implied probability of approximately 11.1 percent. That places La Albiceleste behind Spain (around +450, or roughly 18 percent), France (+550 to +700) and England (+550 to +600), and level with or just behind Brazil at similar pricing.
The numbers reflect both Argentina's strengths and the significant challenges of repeating as champions at this level. Only Brazil (1958 and 1962) and Italy have successfully defended the title in the modern era. Argentina breezed through South American qualifying, winning about 67 percent of matches, and remains a formidable side even without peak Messi thanks to a balanced squad featuring goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez, defenders like Cristian Romero, midfielders such as Rodrigo De Paul and forwards Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez.
Messi's individual influence remains enormous. He was the Golden Ball winner in Qatar 2022, where Argentina edged France on penalties in a thrilling final. Bookmakers still list him as a leading contender for the 2026 Golden Boot at around +1200, behind only Kylian Mbappé and Harry Kane, signaling belief that he could produce magic in what may be his final tournament.
Yet age and fitness introduce uncertainty. Messi has dealt with recurring muscle issues in recent seasons, and he has spoken candidly about the physical demands. In late 2025 interviews he indicated he would assess his condition closer to the event, saying the most normal outcome at 39 would be missing the tournament. Scaloni has repeatedly said he wants Messi present "for the sake of football" but respects that the choice is personal.
Even if Messi participates, his role may be reduced compared with 2022. Argentina has shown it can win without him dominating every match, a maturity that strengthens their overall profile. The team's defensive solidity and penalty-shootout prowess — demonstrated in both the 2021 Copa América and 2022 World Cup — provide a safety net in knockout stages.
The expanded format with 48 teams and a more grueling schedule adds complexity. Argentina is drawn in a favorable group (reportedly Group J alongside weaker opposition), which should allow rotation and preservation of energy. However, the knockout rounds will be more crowded, increasing the chance of upsets.
Public and expert sentiment remains split. Some analysts view +800 as fair value or even slight value for a complete squad with recent major-tournament pedigree (two straight Copa América titles plus the World Cup). Others argue the price undervalues the difficulty of back-to-back success and Messi's advancing years.
Broader context favors European sides. Spain enters as European champions with a young, technically gifted squad. France boasts unmatched attacking depth led by Mbappé. England has a deep roster and consistent knockout experience. Brazil, despite occasional inconsistency, retains historic pedigree and a youthful core.
Argentina's path could hinge on several factors: Messi's physical readiness and motivation, the continued excellence of Martínez in goal, the integration of younger talents, and avoidance of injuries during a long club season. The team's mental toughness — forged through years of near-misses before the 2022 breakthrough — remains an intangible strength.
Messi himself has downplayed expectations in recent comments, noting that any national team can complicate matters and that winning another World Cup is "very, very difficult." His humility contrasts with the global narrative framing 2026 as a potential fairy-tale farewell.
If Messi does feature prominently, the story line writes itself: the greatest player of his generation seeking to cement his legacy with consecutive titles. Even limited minutes could prove decisive in tight matches, as his vision, passing and occasional moments of genius have shown throughout his career.
From a betting perspective, Argentina's odds have drifted slightly in recent weeks as European favorites shortened, but they remain firmly in the conversation. Implied probabilities can shift dramatically once the tournament begins, groups are navigated and knockout form emerges.
For neutral fans, the possibility of Messi lifting the trophy again captivates imaginations even at modest percentage odds. For Argentina supporters, the blend of defending-champion status, squad depth and potential Messi magic creates genuine hope despite the long odds against repeating.
As April 2026 draws to a close and the tournament edges closer, attention will focus on Messi's club performances, any injury updates and eventual confirmation of his international plans. Scaloni's squad selection and friendlies in the coming months will provide further clues.
Regardless of the final percentage — currently hovering near 11 percent in betting markets — Argentina enters 2026 as a dangerous contender capable of defying history. Messi's presence would elevate that threat significantly, turning what is already a strong team into a narrative-driven powerhouse.
The 2026 World Cup promises drama on and off the pitch. For Lionel Messi and Argentina, the quest for back-to-back glory represents both a formidable challenge and one last shot at immortality in what may be the closing chapter of an unparalleled career.
Originally published on ibtimes.com.au
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