Each year there are sleepers who are picked in the mid-to-late rounds that win leagues for their owners. On the flip side, there are big-ticket players that get taken too early and sink those owners' chances. Each year it's super fun to identify the sleepers, but it might be more important to recognize the busts.
Here are the top 5 likeliest busts at first base. These busts are always relative to draft position.
Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels (ADP-43, Other positions: none)
Pujols is one of the best hitters ever. That doesn't mean you need to still draft him like that. At 35 years old this slugger is slowing down. He walked at a lower rate than he ever has last season, and his .272 batting average was the second-worst mark of his career. The worst? A .258 average posted two years ago when he only played in 99 games.
Pujols' power is still there, but his bat is slowing down and he's hitting more ground balls than ever. If his power starts to fade, you might have a real fantasy disaster on your hands.
Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds (ADP-47, Other positions: 3B)
Frazier is a better value as a third baseman, but he may be returning less value than you think this year if you're counting on another 20-steal campaign. He has shown speed in the minors before breaking into the big leagues, but corner infielders don't normally reach the bigs based on their speed. Frazier should have a very solid season, but his current ADP reflects his ceiling, so he'd have to top out just to justify the pick.
Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers (ADP-61, Other positions: none)
Fielder missed most of 2014 with injury, but when he was playing he looked terrible. Injury played a role you say? Sure, I'll buy that-but he wasn't returning value in 2013 either. Despite a nice .307 BABIP fielder hit just .279 in 2013 with 25 home runs. It's solid output, but not what you're expecting from a Top 25 pick, which he was two seasons ago. He's still hovering around the Top 60 now, and the upside is waning. He's 30 now and trending down.
David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox (ADP-69, Other positions: none)
Big Papi hit 35 home runs last season, but he's still a good candidate to go bust. 39-year-old players just don't put up numbers like this. Ortiz's average took a big dip last season, and while his BABIP appears to be the root cause it's not exactly unlucky. Teams shift him like crazy for good reason. If he loses a tick of bat speed-as most near-40 players do, Ortiz might not provide the value owners think they're getting by making him the 14th first-bagger off the board.
Mark Trumbo, Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP-111, Other positions: OF)
Trumbo certainly has big-time power potential, and I'm not holding his 14-home run 2014 against him because he was saddled with injuries all year. The reason he may bust is his poor on-base skills. In back-to-back seasons Trumbo reached base at a sub-.300 clip. Even if he clocks 30-plus homers, that's not good enough. In points leagues especially, his inability to draw walks, along with his high strikeout rate will negate a good chunk of his power. He's good as a late-round flier, but you'll need to invest more to snag him.
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