Betting football games against the spread is often very different than picking which team is going to win. Below you will find a preview of the AFC and NFC Wildcard round games, a prediction for the winner, and the right team to pick against the spread. After that, see the SWN picks for the entire postseason bracket.
NFC
No. 3 Vikings (+5.5) vs. No. 6 Seahawks @ Minnesota
It’s not very often a home team in the playoffs enters a game as a 5.5-point underdog, but that’s the case for Adrian Peterson and the Vikings against the piping hot Seahawks. Seattle won’t have the benefit of the “12th Man” this year, but after a rocky start to the year they finished with a five-game road winning streak that included a victory over the Cardinals in Week 17. Russell Wilson has thrown 21 touchdowns against just one interception in Seattle’s final six games, and Marshawn Lynch is expected to be back for this game.
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The Seahawks also smacked the Vikings when they faced off in Week 13 in Minnesota. The Vikes lost 38-7, and were blanked on offense, scoring their only touchdown on a late kickoff return. Adrian Peterson won’t find many holes against the Seahawks’ 3rd-ranked rushing defense, and Seattle’s most glaring weakness – defending tight ends – has to be exploited by Kyle Rudolph. In light of all that the line makes more sense, but it’s still difficult to lay nearly six points against a home team with 11 wins.
Winner: Seahawks
Against The Spread: Vikings (+5.5)
No. 4 Redskins (-1) vs. No. 5 Packers @ Washington
It’s trendy to pick against the Packers right now, and for good reason. Their offense has been sputtering for almost the entire season, Aaron Rodgers hasn’t looked like an MVP, and they closed their season with two convincing losses to playoff teams. On the other hand, for as poor as they’ve looked, the Redskins are in the postseason by virtue of winning the worst division in the NFL.
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Washington’s strength of schedule rated -2.5 per Pro-FootballReference.com, while Green Bay’s was at 2.5. The ‘Skins faced very little resistance on the way to the playoffs, and they don’t have much to hang their hat on moving forward. Kirk Cousins has been surprisingly competent all year – and finished the season on an 11-touchdown, zero-interception tear – but has been statistically pedestrian for most of the season. Washington’s running game is inefficient, and their defense could be an elixir for Rodgers.
The Redskins rank 19th vs. the pass and 22nd vs. the run, which could allow the Packers to regain their balance on offense. It’s rare to get an opportunity to bet on Rodgers as an underdog.
Winner: Packers
Against the Spread: Packers (+1)
AFC
No. 3 Bengals (+2.5) vs. Steelers @ Cincinnati
The Bengals are a home underdog, despite having the better record and winning the division. That has a lot to do with starting QB Andy Dalton likely missing this game, although a quick look at Dalton’s postseason history has to leave one wondering if Cincy will miss him. Dalton is 0-4 with one touchdown and six interceptions once the regular season ends, so Marvin Lewis might be smart to let McCarron handle this one.
McCarron hasn’t been all that bad, throwing six touchdowns and two picks in four starts, completing 66 percent of his passes and averaging 208 yards. The Steelers have a solid defense, but McCarron has two elite weapons –WR A.J. Green and TE Tyler Eifert – as well as Giovani Bernard to catch balls out of the backfield. Fellow RB Jeremy Hill will find it tough sledding against Pittsburgh’s Top 5 run defense, so they may have to lean on McCarron.
The Steelers could be without DeAngelo Williams, who was shockingly good in relief of Le’Veon Bell. The Steelers, even without Williams, have arguably the best passing offense in football, but Williams took the Steelers from dangerous to nearly unstoppable offensively. Without him, Cincinnati may be able to game plan better for Antonio Brown and co. It’s also a dirty little secret that Ben Roethlisberger’s play has been shaky the last two weeks against questionable opposition. The Steelers aren’t offering much value to bettors.
Winner: Bengals
Against the Spread: Bengals (+2.5)
No. 4 Texans (+3) vs. No. 5 Chiefs @ Houston
The Chiefs closed the regular season on a 10-game winning streak, while the Texans barely survived a division in which it looked like every coach might get fired. Upon closer inspection, however, the Chiefs’ streak is a lot of smoke and mirrors. Kansas City only beat two playoff teams during the streak, and one of them was the Broncos, in which Peyton Manning threw four picks and left with a torn plantar fascia. Down the stretch they nearly lost to the Chargers and the Browns, scoring a combined 27 points against two pathetic defenses.
The Texans’ defense came on strong late in the season, allowing just 22 points total over their final three games. They got QB Brian Hoyer back for the final game of the year, and although they do not have a high-powered offense, WR DeAndre Hopkins is a game-breaker. J.J. Watt led the NFL in sacks once again with 17 ½, and he’s gotten help this year from the likes of Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus. As long as Houston does not commit turnovers, they have a chance to shock the Chiefs.
Winner: Texans
Against the Spread: Texans (+3)
AFC Divisional Round
No. 1 Broncos def. No. 4 Texans
No. 2 Patriots def. No. 3 Bengals
NFC Divisional Round
No. 6 Seahawks def. No. 1 Panthers
No. 2 Cardinals def. No. 5 Packers
AFC Championship
No. 2 Patriots def. No. 1 Broncos
NFC Championship
No. 2 Cardinals def. No. 6 Seahawks
Super Bowl
New England Patriots def. Arizona Cardinals
Choosing the Patriots just comes down to a numbers game. While the Cardinals, Panthers and Seahawks all have a case to be taken more seriously than the injury-ravaged Patriots, they'll have to cannibalize each other to make it to the Super Bowl. The Pats, on the other hand, are in a field with just two other QBs who have even won a playoff game. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are healthy, and WR Julian Edelman will likely be back in action, so their key offensive weaponry will be intact.
By virtue of their road to the Super Bowl, making them the pick is a product of them being the most likely team in the NFL to actually be in the game.
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