Final Four Preview and Prediction: NC State Stands in the Way of Purdue Redemption

(Photo : Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)) DALLAS, TEXAS - MARCH 31: Michael O'Connell #12 of the North Carolina State Wolfpack and DJ Burns Jr. #30 of the North Carolina State Wolfpack react after drawing a foul in the second half of the Elite 8 round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament against the Duke Blue Devils at American Airlines Center on March 31, 2024 in Dallas, Texas.

The stage is set for the NCAA Tournament Final Four in Phoenix, Arizona, and the NC State Wolfpack are the last team standing in the way of the Purdue Boilermakers' attempt to make the National Championship game after losing to a 16-seed a year ago.

NC State is back in the Final Four for the first time since 1983, when the last Wolfpack team to win the championship pulled off an unthinkable miracle of its own. The Wolfpack are searching for their third National Championship in program history.

Purdue is still in pursuit of their first one as a program, and head coach Matt Painter has his team well positioned to have a chance. The Boilermakers have done an admirable job of tuning out the noise about last year and handling their business against some good teams so far on this run.

Final Four Preview: NC State vs. Purdue

Tip-Off Time: 6:09 PM
Channel: TBS
Odds: Purdue -9.5
How Purdue Got Here: 78-50 win vs. (16) Grambling, 106-67 win vs (8) Utah State, 80-66 win vs. (5) Gonzaga, 72-66 win vs. (2) Tennessee
How NC State Got Here: 80-67 win vs. (6) Texas Tech, 79-73 win vs. (14) Oakland, 67-58 win vs. (2) Marquette, 76-64 win vs. (4) Duke

This is shaping up to be such an exciting Final Four Showdown. In one corner, we've got America's Sweethearts, the NC State Wolfpack, led by national sensation D.J. Burns and a group of quality players who have come together to play their roles perfectly at just the right time.

In the other corner, the Purdue Boilermakers are trying to complete an inspirational redemption story, but they feel like somewhat of a villain due to some disdain for their National Player of the Year favorite Zach Edey and a love-to-hate-them vibe clouding this whole program in general.

There's no question that most neutral viewers on Saturday will want the Pack to keep their run rolling, unless you're specifically rooting for a one-vs-one Purdue-UConn showdown in the National Title game, which would be entirely valid.

NC State Wolfpack vs. Purdue Boilermakers: How They Match Up

But how do these two teams match up against each other? In my mind, there are a lot of reasons to see this as a winnable game for the Wolfpack.

Zach Edey is going to get his. There is no question about that, and if the Wolfpack are silly enough to line DJ Burns up against him one-on-one on the defensive end, Burns will quickly get into foul trouble, and NC State will be in trouble on offense without their main vein.

However, while Edey will be trying to lock down DJ Burns on defense, Burns will likely rarely be asked to defend Edey himself. NC State has Mohamed Diarra and Ben Middlebrooks to rotate in to draw that assignment, and they may even call upon little-used big man Ernest Ross to eat some early fouls and play some hands-on defense on Edey.

That's not going to stop Zach Edey by any means, but the Wolfpack also have the guards to give Purdue's perimeter some issues. Virginia transfer Casey Morsell is used to locking down his opponents, and he could be well-suited to limit the impact of Braden Smith or Fletcher Loyer in this game.

NC State Will Have to Sic the Wolfpack on Purdue's Zach Edey

When Fairleigh Dickinson beat Purdue last year, they didn't go all out in a futile attempt to stop Edey. Nobody can stop Edey. It's about making Purdue's supporting cast beat you. Between Morsell and Jaden Taylor, the Wolfpack have the defenders at guard and on the wing who can make that a real scenario.

On the other side of the ball, Purdue is in good shape. There's no need to double team DJ Burns, which is what doomed Marquette, and in Zach Edey they have a center who can actually make it difficult for him to bully his way to the rim or float the ball over him. Burns will have to be sharp passing the ball without wide open guys as a result of his double teams.

This game will come down to whether or not Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith knock down a bunch of three-point shots. Zach Edey will do enough to give his team a really strong chance, but we've seen Texas Tech, Marquette, and Duke all struggle mightily behind the arc against NC State. I'm not sure there's reason to believe Purdue will get enough of those shots to avoid the upset, and the Wolfpack have done all of this without a fluky shooting day on offense. That could be coming too.