Final Four Preview and Prediction: Can Alabama Slay the UConn Dragon?

(Photo : (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)) BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - MARCH 30: Donovan Clingan #32, Stephon Castle #5 and Alex Karaban #11 of the Connecticut Huskies look on against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the second half in the Elite 8 round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at TD Garden on March 30, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts.

The stage is set for the NCAA Tournament Final Four in Phoenix, Arizona on Saturday, and the UConn Huskies will take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in what promises to be a high-octane showdown.

The Huskies are in search of their second consecutive National Championship, their fourth since 2010, and their fifth overall.

Alabama has never made it to the Final Four before, let alone won the National Championship, so the Crimson Tide are on a mission to extend their history-making run.

Final Four Preview: Alabama vs. Connecticut

Tip-Off Time: 8:49 PM EST
Channel: TBS
Odds: UConn -11.5
How Alabama Got Here: 109-96 win over (13) Charleston, 72-61 win over (12) Grand Canyon, 89-87 win over (1) North Carolina, 89-82 win over (6) Clemson
How Connecticut Got Here: 91-52 win over (16) Stetson, 75-58 win over (8) Northwestern, 82-52 win over (5) San Diego State, 77-52 win over (3) Illinois

While there is a lot of dislike in the air toward this Alabama program, and while the SEC has not performed well in this tournament, there is no denying that Alabama basketball is a thing of beauty.

Nate Oats has a group and a coaching staff that treats every basketball game like a math equation. They only take three-pointers or twos close to the rim, so they know on a given possession, they are more likely to take a more efficient shot than their opponent.

If they have the edge in efficiency, they then will need to play as fast as possible to allow that advantage to more greatly impact the probability of winning the actual game. More possessions means less shooting variance and more opportunities for their more efficient shots to result in more points.

It's brilliant, and it works. They can be beaten by that shooting variance or occasional carelessness, but they feel like they play every game with the mathematical deck stacked in their favor.

The question remains is whether that hypothetical advantage means a thing against a UConn team this dominant. The Huskies do every single thing on the court well, and they have a brilliant coach who can find answers to solve what is being thrown at him using the elite personnel at his disposal.

So, it probably doesn't mean all that much. The expected value of those high-efficiency Alabama twos near the rim is set to plummet against the rim protecting force that is UConn center Donovan Clingan.

Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer, and Alex Karaban are perfectly game for a three-point shootout as well, should it come down to that.

The path to an Alabama win would require foul trouble keeping Clingan off the floor for long stretches coupled with a nuclear shooting day on their part or a cold one by Connecticut.