After the 2023 NCAA Tournament resulted in San Diego State making the final and Florida Atlantic making the Final 4, it's natural to wonder which teams in this year's field of 68 could be poised to shock the nation and go on a similar run.
One such team is the New Mexico Lobos, who earned an automatic bid to the tournament after getting hot at the right time and winning the Mountain West Conference Tournament last week.
The Lobos knocked off Boise State, Colorado State, and San Diego State to clinch their spot, and they were rewarded with an 11-seed in the West region. Their last three wins in the Mountain West tournament came over fellow teams in this bracket, but the Mountain West received worse-than-expected treatment from the committee when it came to seeding.
New Mexico's seeding suggests that the Lobos were not on the bubble at all, contrary to popular belief, and would have been excluded had they not gotten that final win against the Aztecs.
New Mexico will square off with the sixth-seeded Clemson Tigers, who earned an at-large bid out of the Atlantic Coast Conference thanks to a very strong regular season despite a blowout loss to Boston College in the ACC Tournament.
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NCAA Tournament Dark Horse: New Mexico Lobos
KenPom Ranking: 23
NET Ranking: 22
Best Wins: San Diego State x2, Utah State x2, Colorado State x2, Nevada x2
New Mexico's berth in this year's tournament is the culmination of an impressive turnaround on the part of head coach Richard Pitino, who took over the struggling team in 2021 and has them on top of one of the toughest conferences in college basketball now.
The Lobos absolutely belonged in this field whether they beat or lost to San Diego State in the conference championship game, and their elite metrics reflect that.
According to KenPom, the team is 41st in the country in offensive efficiency and 23rd in defensive efficiency. They succeed on both ends of the ball with a frenetic pace, ranking 8th in adjusted tempo.
Clemson is 27th in offensive efficiency but 67th on defense, and plays much slower at the 260th ranked tempo in the nation.
New Mexico is a ruthlessly efficient team on both ends of the floor that is going to look to speed the Tigers up to their level, and it's doubtful that the Tigers will be able to maintain their own level at that pace, to me.
The Lobos feature a diverse scoring attack led by their guard trio of Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr, and Donovan Dent, all of whom average over 14 points per game and shoot the ball fairly well.
Clemson has a very strong interior presence in P.J. Hall, but New Mexico has a solid answer for him in J.T. Toppin, the freshman averaging 12.5 points, 9 rebounds, and a stunning 1.9 blocks per game.
If the Lobos do beat Clemson, they will likely line up with Baylor, another somewhat vulnerable high seed that the Lobos could match up very well against.
New Mexico has already proven it can thrive in a win-or-go-home setting, so watch out for the Lobos as a team primed for a run this week.
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